XBT/USD Analysis: Where Is This Consolidation Leading Bitcoin BitMEX Margin Trading?

November 21st, 2019

Trading Bitcoin perpetual swap contract activity on BitMEX has gone down significantly. In fact, the data extracted by Datamish shows that only 9.18k of Bitcoin shorts having liquidated in the last six hours. However, no Bitcoin longs have been liquidated in the same period, see the table below.

Bitcoin longs and shorts liquidations on BitMEX
Bitcoin longs and shorts liquidations on BitMEX | Image source – Datamish

In the meantime, the Bitcoin price is pushing consolidation above $8,000. All the attempts to pull the price above $8,200 have not yielded much. Bitcoin price is doddering at $8,077 after correcting lower from an intraday high around $8,114.

XBT/USD 1-hour chart

BTC/USD price chart
BTC/USD price chart by Tradingview, BitMEX

A building bearish momentum risks break a short term ascending trendline support. The Bollinger Band one-hour middle curve is position as immediate support. Moreover, the Bollinger Bands narrowing trend signals that a breakout or a breakdown is around the corner.

To predict the direction of the soon to come to break, let us look at the trend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The indicator has in the last couple of days been trending higher and forming a higher low pattern. However, the movement has not been sustainable above 60 which means that selling influence is higher than buying power. Meanwhile, the RSI is retreating towards 40 in a bid to signify the growing bearish strength.

The Above RSI coupled with the expanding volume sends out bearish signals. If the trendline support is broken, then Bitcoin will have no option but to let go of $8,000 and seek another key support at $7,800.

Bitcoin Key Technical Levels

BitMEX price index: $8,067

Volume: $1.4 billion

Open Interest: $848 million

Trend: Bearish

Support: $8,050, $7,800

Resistance $8,200 and $8,400