Has Bitcoin Bottomed and Where is It Headed Next? Leading Trade Analysts Weigh-in
April 22nd, 2019
Tone Vays, one of the most prominent Bitcoin traders and analyst recently conducted a long 5-Hour debate session, where leading analyst and traders of the space lent their voice. The topic of the debate was ‘Has Bitcoin Bottomed?‘
The section of debaters for the motion included Murad Mahmudov, Willy Woo, and David Puell, who noted that Bitcoin has bottomed as their indicators and analysis are now pointing upwards. The traders have presented a variety of instrumental analysis, both new and traditional.
Willy Woo’s popular NVT ratio analysis along with Davil Puell suggested that the bottom is in. They added that “from the number of Bitcoin days destroyed perspective we are already seeing an accumulation phase.”
According to Woo, it is 95% probable that the bottom is in and he also said that:
“I’d consider lucky if we drop below $4300.”
Murah Mahudov emphasized on the realized price with the actual market price graph over time graph. According to that analysis when a break of realized price with the actual price happens it marks the bottom. Moreover, the NVT ratio also has also stabilized (in green region) in the past post the intersection event on the graph.
Capitulation in traders and miners: Has or Hasn’t it Occurred Already?
Tuur Demeester, the founding partner at Adamant Capital also lend in his views on the debate taking a cue from the recent report published by his firm. According to him, the miners who are mining at a cost of 5 cents KWh or below are still making a profit and that capitulation has already happened. Moreover, he is 80% certain that Bitcoin has bottomed in December 2018 at $3000 level. Tuur added to his analysis that altcoins will suffer the brunt of the bears, not Bitcoin. He said,
“Altcoins will suffer… and I think ICOs are still holding on to 50% of their Ether (ETH) position. And holding Bitcoin is not expensive. This Ultimate capitulation of Bitocin going deep below $3000, I don’t really see it.”
Furthermore, David Puell suggested that the Bitcoin markets are more punishing than it is oscillatory. He said:
“Not getting the chance to buy Bitcoin (Cheap) is punishment enough for more people…Very high likelihood that we’ll see $4000 very neat bull trap out of this high or 6k. I don’t think we’re going to see another lows.”
The Case of the Bears
However, Venzen Khaosan, another trader feels that the bottom might just not be in or it is too early to call it. He added:
“Bitcoin is now turning up… Between 70-99% sure that Bottom is in. But, but there is a very strong case technically (pointing otherwise)… The only this that is lacking in Tuur’s Analysis is Elliot Wave analysis.”
According to the principals of Elliot Wave Analysis, the market usually tends to retrace the same ratio it went up and two more bearish waves can be expected in Bitcoin. Moreover, according to him, there is also a probability that the bear markets will extend for another year.
Another Bitcoin optimistic bear debate participant was Tyler Jenks, according to him there is a lot of upside to Bitcoin that will occur in the future. However, the cryptocurrency markets are going through a “period of chaos” and decluttering is required.
“We come to some level above $1000 per bitcoin… Future looks really really bright… I think Bitcoin is going to $5 million or $10 million dollars but just not yet.”